Pakistan's Afghan Policy's Failure: A Political Analysis

 Introduction

Security-related factors have historically shaped Pakistan’s approach to Afghanistan, and the country heavily relies on Islamist proxies to preserve its strategic clout there. For many years, Islamabad’s strategists thought that backing the Taliban would guarantee a favourable government in Kabul, protect Pakistan’s western border, and thwart Indian expansion. But recent events have shown this strategy’s fundamental inadequacies, with disastrous results for Pakistan’s economic, security, and regional status.

The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan’s (TTP) comeback, the most recent skirmishes between Pakistani and Afghan security forces, and Kabul’s increasing animosity towards Islamabad all show that Pakistan’s long-standing Afghan strategy has not only failed but has completely backfired. This blog offers a political audit of Pakistan’s Afghan policy, highlighting the necessity for a comprehensive policy revamp and looking at its strategic errors.

The Historical Context of Pakistan’s Afghan Policy

Pakistan’s approach to Afghanistan has focused on using Islamist organisations as proxies in order to secure its western border. This strategy developed during significant historical junctures:

1 The Cold War Era (1980s): Pakistan, with U.S. and Saudi assistance, supported the Afghan Mujahideen against the Soviet Union, expanding Islamist networks in the area.

2 In the 1990s, Pakistan supported the Taliban because it thought an Islamist regime in Kabul would be a trustworthy ally. Afghan nationalist and secular groups were offended by this.

3 In an attempt to retain power following the U.S. pullout, Pakistan continued to shelter the Afghan Taliban after 9/11 (2001–2021), despite formally supporting the U.S. War on Terror.

4 The Taliban Takeover from 2021 to the Present: Pakistan first rejoiced when the Taliban regained control, believing that their reign would protect its western border. But instead, the TTP used Afghanistan as a base from which to conduct strikes against Pakistan.

Why Pakistan’s Afghan Policy Failed

1. Miscalculation of Taliban Loyalty. The Pakistani authorities thought that once in power, the Afghan Taliban would control the TTP’s actions. Despite Pakistan’s repeated requests, the Taliban have shown little readiness to act against the TTP. Instead, they have given safe havens for the organisation, allowing it to reorganise and carry out lethal strikes within Pakistan.

2. Myth of ‘Strategic Depth’ Developed into ‘Reverse Strategic Depth’.
   For decades, Pakistan maintained a’strategic depth’ doctrine, employing Afghan territory to protect itself from Indian dominance. However, the Taliban’s authority in Kabul has produced the opposite impact. The TTP may now freely operate in Afghanistan, using it as a base to target Pakistan. Instead of gaining strategic depth, Pakistan is currently experiencing increased instability along its western border.
3. Diplomatic Isolation and Regional Setback
4. Pakistan’s pro-Taliban position has pushed it away from regional and global powers. The United States, which once depended on Pakistan as a vital partner in Afghanistan, now sees it sceptically. Meanwhile, Afghanistan under the Taliban has moved closer to India and Iran, further isolating Pakistan internationally.
5. Economic and security fallout
6. The return of militancy along the western border has serious economic ramifications.
7. Increased terrorist assaults: The TTP has committed many attacks on Pakistani security forces and civilians, eroding domestic stability.
8. Impact on commerce and investment: Pakistan’s border trade with Afghanistan and Central Asia has suffered as security circumstances deteriorate.
9. Economic and social strains continue to rise in Pakistan as millions of Afghan refugees remain there.

The Need for a New Afghan Policy

To reverse course, Pakistan must transition from a security-focused Afghan strategy to a more pragmatic, diplomatic, and economic one. Key steps include:

Abandoning Proxy Politics: Pakistan must stop backing Islamist proxies and instead cultivate connections with all Afghan factions.
Improving Border Security: Preventing cross-border terrorism requires a stronger border management system, which includes fencing and restricted crossings.
Diplomatic Re-engagement: Pakistan should work with regional and global forces to put pressure on the Taliban to take action against the TTP.
Strengthening Democratic Oversight: Afghan policy should not be determined primarily by the security forces. Parliament and civilian institutions should play a larger role in crafting foreign policy.

Conclusion

Pakistan’s Afghan strategy has traditionally been guided by erroneous strategic assumptions, which have resulted in devastating outcomes. The belief that the Taliban would be a trusted friend has proven to be a terrible mistake, since Kabul has become a safe haven for anti-Pakistan extremists. Instead of gaining’strategic depth,’ Pakistan today faces’reverse strategic depth,’ putting its own security at risk.

Pakistan must reconsider its strategy, prioritising national security above ideological ties, and pursuing a more balanced and diplomatic Afghan policy. Without a significant strategic adjustment, Pakistan will continue to face the repercussions of its previous miscalculations, including increased terrorism, diplomatic isolation, and economic failures.